Russia In Syria – Military ‘Failure’ Sets Off Intense Diplomacy
Western media predicted that the Russian military campaign in Syria would end in `failure`. That – presumably – has been achieved (not). Now follows a push of diplomatic efforts to settle the war.
In September 2015 the “west” prepared for an open military aggression on Syria. The purported aim was to fight ISIS and to stop the migrant flow into Europe. The real aim was “regime change”. Russia stepped in by sending its cavalry to Syria:
The U.S., Britain, France and others announced to enter Syrian skies to “fight the terror” of the Islamic State. Russia will use the same claim to justify its presence and its air operations flying from Latakia. Simply by being there it will make sure that others will not be able to use their capabilities for more nefarious means. Additional intelligence from Russian air assets will also be helpful for Syrian ground operations.
The Obama administration was surprised by the Russian (and Iranian) intervention. It had no sensible means to counter it. The administration and the U.S. commentariat tried to hide this impotence by predicting that the Russian campaign would fail.
Obama himself led the pack:
“An attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire and it won’t work,” Mr. Obama said during a news conference at the White House on Friday …
As reminder, and for your amusement, an incomplete list of the then published “Russia fails” nonsense:
- Obama: Russia’s strategy in Syria ‘doomed to fail’ – Al Jazeerah, September 11 2015
- Could Syria be Putin’s Afghanistan? – Al Jazeerah, September 14 2015
- Why Iran’s Plan in Syria Will Fail – Aawsad, September 15 2015
- U.S. to Putin: Welcome to the ISIS ˜Quagmire’ – The Daily Beast, September 29 2015
- Secretary of Defense: Russia ˜Doomed to Fail’ in Syria – September 30, 2015
- Saudi official says Russia will fail to save Syria’s Assad – USA Today, September 30 2015
- Why Putin is doomed to fail in Syria – Vox.com, October 1 2015
- Obama: Russia heading for ‘quagmire’ in Syria – CNN, October 2 2015
- Obama Sees Russia Failing in Syria Effort – NY Times, October 2, 2015
- Like Brezhnev in Afghanistan, Putin will Fail in Syria – Palestinian Chronicla, October 5 2015
- Putin will fail in Syria: The West must take a step back – CityAM, October 5 2015
- DOD: Russia ‘Doomed to Fail’ in Syria – CNS news, October 6 2015
- Don’t Chase Putin Out of Syria ” Let Him Fail On His Own – GMF-US, October 9 2015
- Echoes of Afghanistan in Syria – National Interest, October 9 2015
- Russian army in Syria: A failure foretold – Ynet News, October 10 2015
- Russia’s ˜quagmire’ destroys all hope of defeating ISIS – The Hill, October 16 2015
- Russians support airstrikes in Syria, despite haunting memories of quagmire in Afghanistan – Foxnew, October 20 2015
- Russia risks Syrian quagmire -U.S. deputy secretary of state – Reuters, October 31 2015
- The Syrian quagmire – Daily Times (Pakistan), November 3 2015
- Putin is in a quagmire in Syria ” and Russians deserve better – Chicago Tribune, November 11 2015
- Is Russia’s Syria Intervention Doomed to Fail? – RUSI, November 20 2015
- Russia’s Failed Adventure in Syria – Gatestone Institute, December 1 2015
- Putin risks a new Afghanistan, Obama warns – Politico, December 1 2015
- Putin’s Quagmire in Syria Proves Obama Prescient – Bloomberg, December 9 2015
- Putin bogging down in Syria – December 10, 2015
- Putin’s Middle East Misadventures – U.S. News, December 11 2015
- Is Syria Already A Quagmire For Putin? – Outside the Beltway, December 12 2015
- The Danger of Putin Losing in Syria – The Atlantic, January 11 2016
- Russia will ‘fail to save’ Syria’s Assad: Saudi Foreign Minister – Daily Mail, February 14 2016
- Putin is making a mistake in Syria ” and Russia will pay the price – WaPo, September 26 2016
- The Latest: Tillerson says Russia has ˜failed’ in Syria – Fox, April 6 2017
- Russia is at a dead-end in Syria – Al Jazeerah, June 25 2015
- Putin is drowning in Syria – Israel National News, June 28 2017
In October 2015, in the mid of the above propaganda onslaught, the presidents of Russia and Syria met in Moscow. It was a warm meeting despite the NY Times groundless efforts to portrait it as “chilly“. The plans were laid for the military efforts to regain the country. They were successfully implemented. Russia’s “quagmire” in Syria turned out to be a Well Designed Campaign.
The U.S. tried its best to hinder Syrian and Russian progress in the war. But despite Obama’s unrelenting efforts, the Syrian alliance managed to regain control over Aleppo, Palmyra, Deir Ezzor and most of the south-east. The borders to Lebanon and Iraq are open and secured. Russian pressure turned Turkey around. Local ceasefires were arranged in over 2,500 towns and hamlets. The Islamic State is defeated. The Syrian army is again fully equipped and a fearsome force.
Yesterday the Syrian President Bashar al Assad again met President Putin. Assad remarked:
I am very glad to have this opportunity to meet with you two years and several weeks after Russia launched a very successful operation.
Over this period, we have achieved major success both on the battlefield and on the political track. Many regions in Syria have been liberated from the terrorists, and the Syrians who had to flee from these regions can now return there.
After several hours of talk Putin introduced Assad to Russia’s military leaders. He noted:
As you know, we will hold a trilateral meeting here in Sochi. However, I would like to say that conditions for a political process could not have been created without the armed forces, without your efforts and the efforts and heroism of your subordinates. This goal has been achieved thanks to the Russian Armed Forces and our Syrian friends on the battlefield. Thank you for this.
Since 1945 the U.S. military has, arguable, won no war. (No, Grenada does not count.) Russia demonstrated in Syria how it is done. This must be food for thought to “western” staffs.
Sukhoi 30 fighter-bomber
Yesterday’s meeting was the launch event for the main diplomatic campaign to end the war. Today Putin held phone conservation with U.S. President Trump, the Saudi King, the Emir of Qatar, the President of Egypt and the Prime Minister of Israel. Tomorrow he will meet President Rouhani of Iran and President Erdogan of Turkey.
In parallel a meeting of high military officials of the Syrian-Russian alliance takes place. Saudi Arabia is cleansing the “High Negotiations Committee (HNC)” opposition group it supports. The uncompromising head of the HNC, Riyad Hijab, was fired. The groups meets in Riyadh on November 22. On November 28 another round of talks under UN supervision will be held in Geneva. Russia is planning to host a gathering of about 1,300 Syrians representing the revamped opposition on December 2.
Syria’s will to fight, the reliability of its allies and Russian military competence have turned the war around. The Putin-Assad meeting in Sochi sets the foundations for a lasting peace.
There are remaining challenges: Al-Qaeda still controls Idleb governate, Israel protects Jihadi groups along the Golan heights, 1,700 U.S. soldiers and their Kurdish proxy forces try to establish themselves in north-east Syria. The Zionist lobby is pressing in Washington to prolong the war. It will take another year or two, and require more fighting, to overcome these issues. But the conditions to solve the remaining problems are now clearly in place. The diplomatic push by Russia and Syria will find solutions for many if not most of the unsettled problems.
The U.S. commentariat was wrong in predicting a failure of the Russian military campaign. It will continue to sow doubt over Russia’s diplomatic efforts. It will try to hinder and denigrate Syria’s progress in regaining full sovereignty over its land and people.
No longer should anyone fall for such bullshitting.
Posted by b on November 21, 2017 at 12:52 PM | Permalink
I think the bullshitters increasingly find themselves beshat.
Posted by: Grieved | Nov 21, 2017 1:46:05 PM | 2
And it looks like the well known defector, Riyad Hijab, will not be attending the meeting of Syrian opposition groups in Riyadh tomorrow.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42063124
Posted by: dh | Nov 21, 2017 2:04:28 PM | 3
NYT says Syria’s capitol is deserted.bullshit.zionist prop.
Posted by: dahoit | Nov 21, 2017 2:07:10 PM | 4
thanks b.. it has been a long journey to this point.. the intentions of numerous players is on display for all to see, however, they are going to have to look elsewhere then the western msm to stay abreast.. i think many people view the western msm with much greater suspicion.. i hope so anyway.. perhaps the refugee issue was an important part of europe waking up to what these wars in the middle east foster.. either way, i wish syria well and anyone who seeks peace and a better world without resort to war..
Posted by: james | Nov 21, 2017 2:11:37 PM | 5
I have to painfully disagree and maybe you can prove me wrong. However the USA staged an intervention in 1965 during the Dominican Republic’s civil war and successfully defeated the liberals and helped the proxy conservatives who were losing.
Then the USA fought and won in Panama.
The invasion of Iraq by Bush 2 was successful but Saddam’s defanged Republican Guard and army were a shadow of it’s former power.
So we can’t really say the USA has always lost ever since WW2, jess sayin
Posted by: Fernando Arauxo | Nov 21, 2017 2:34:32 PM | 6
I do wish to add that seeing the heroism of the Russians, Iranians, Syrians and Lebanese is very inspiring.
Posted by: Fernando Arauxo | Nov 21, 2017 2:37:26 PM | 7
Way to go Dr. Al Assad, your father would be proud of your Michael Corleone rise and triumph.
Posted by: Fernando Arauxo | Nov 21, 2017 2:45:28 PM | 8
Still a they are parroting mindlessly : ASSAD MUST GO!
You cannot explain mental patient that he/she is actually sick, so you cannot explain America nothing, reason is against their religion of American exceptionalism.
Posted by: Kalen | Nov 21, 2017 2:55:25 PM | 9
Great list of MSM shame. Love it. Thank you. Will try not to forget a Christmas gift.
Posted by: aniteleya | Nov 21, 2017 3:04:14 PM | 10
“No longer should anyone fall for such bullshitting.”
Just come to Canada, where 95% still believe it.
Posted by: Jean | Nov 21, 2017 3:22:45 PM | 11
In 1965 in the Dominican Republic, the US was fighting half the Dominican forces
as they were allied to the other half. In those days, the Dom. Rep was only 5 million strong
with mostly WW2 surplus equipment. The air force and the Navy were in the hands of the
US allied faction which made things a lot easier for the 42,450 disembarking Marines and
other US troops. Yet there were plenty body bags because the Dominicans fought
gallantly and valiantly.
So Yeah, big deal. A 20 years old fighting a toddler. quite an even fight…
Then Panama was another repeat of the same. The US used weapons that “melted” people.
They indiscriminately carpet bombed the populous quarters of Panama City. More than
5000 dead on the Panama side. some say 10,000. M1Abrams against tin shacks. Quite a fight!
So yeah, big deal. a 20 years old fighting a toddler. Quite an even fight…
And there was Grenada! Another glorious page Smedley Butler would be proud of!
I flew over the Fleet that was about to attack Grenada. The sea was frothing as long mustaches
along myriads of mean destroyers, carriers, corvettes, landing crafts, supply vessels and assorted
paraphernalia. Collectively they had probably more area than the tiny spec they were converging on.
But his was a decisive and neat and unquestionnable victory!
So yeah, can’t say the US had no victories after WWII.
But yeah: “A vaincre sans peril, on triomphe sans gloire”
(Victory without risk brings no glory)
Posted by: CarlD | Nov 21, 2017 3:39:16 PM | 12
The U.S. commentariat was wrong in predicting a failure of the Russian military campaign.
As stated not for once (by me)–US Russia’s “scholarship” is pathetic across the whole spectrum of Russian activities–from diplomacy, to economy to military (especially military). In other words, US expertdom is simply not good, period. This claim today is supported by overwhelming empirical evidence.
Posted by: SmoothieX12 | Nov 21, 2017 3:49:44 PM | 13
Jean @11 “No longer should anyone fall for such bullshitting.”
Just come to Canada, where 95% still believe it.
Bulls eye, Jean, even among so-called progressives. Thank God for people like Eva Karene Bartlett even though most up here have never heard of her – and the CBC and TVO never seem to ask for her input.
Posted by: spudski | Nov 21, 2017 3:52:14 PM | 14
Thank you B. I recently lost many cherished bookmarks (stupid gmail drafts issue), I now have many moments of enjoyment reviewing failed Neocon predictions, BU-WAH-HAH-HAH-HAH-HAH-HAH-HAH!
I even recall a few articles on ‘nationalinterest.org / realcleardefense.com’ chortling over the impending operational problems Russia was going to have in Syria …
1. their ships were no good,
2. they couldn’t maintain their aircraft,
3. they didn’t know how to operate outside their country.
4. they were an army of conscripts on the verge of desertion, (this would be the end of Putin).
Again, BU-WAH-HAH-HAH-HAH-HAH-HAH-HAH!
I am so glad I live in NJ because I am able to buy every drop of gasoline that I need from Lukoil which I do every chance I get. I will not buy gas anywhere else.
Posted by: Christian Chuba | Nov 21, 2017 4:11:43 PM | 15
Much as I agree with the analysis of the Russian intervention, this victory is not a Syrian and Russian one only. Iran and Hezbollah have played a major role on the ground. That is not to take away from the Syrian and Russian roles, but the Shia allies’s role is remarkable too.
Posted by: fx | Nov 21, 2017 4:33:55 PM | 16
My air force father who had “served” in Nam once took umbrage at me saying the US had lost the war. “Okay, dad, what do you call second place in a f**king war?” served to shut him up. He was spec ops, Spooky, and never talked about what he had done. In fact, he didn’t really talk anymore after he came back. I felt like I had lost him in the war even though he lived another forty years.
Posted by: Ruben Chandler | Nov 21, 2017 4:38:54 PM | 17
I wonder why Putin did not mention the contribution of others which was quite significant. Or whether it was just not reported?
Posted by: CarlD | Nov 21, 2017 4:40:05 PM | 18
That’s a hilarious collection of articles, which really shows the extent to which western corporate media parrots official government propaganda lines.
As far as why Russia was so successful in their effort, a lot of it comes down to their willingness to act as equal partners with Syria and Iran, rather than the American exceptionalist approach. This also meant Russia demanded that Syrian armed forces work just as hard as Russian air forces to accomplish goals (unlike the U.S. in Afghanistan, holding the hand of the Afghan army all the time). There was no Russia effort to meddle in Syrian internal politics or replace Assad with the most Russia-friendly tool in sight, as America would have done. Another extremely telling point is the brief disagreement with Iran over the use of Iranian air bases by Russian planes:
“Iran on Monday annulled permission for Russian planes to fly bombing runs into Syria from an Iranian base, only a week after having granted such extraordinary access, saying that the Kremlin had been unacceptably public and arrogant about the privilege.” – Aug 22 2016, NYT
Russia didn’t throw a tantrum (as the US would have done if, say, Bahrain closed off US access to their naval bases) and Russian-Iranian relations continued as before, and the Syria campaign was unaffected. What this really says is that Russia isn’t bent on establishing some kind of Middle East empire along the U.S. lines (in which countries like Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia only retain their monarchial dictatorships thanks to US military and economic support), but is actually willing to live in a multipolar world where they don’t call all the shots all the time.
It’s a real diplomatic win for Russia; rather than insisting on master-servant relationships, they’ve demonstrated they can work together with other countries as equal partners – something the U.S. should clearly learn from (not that its likely Washington will do so).
Posted by: nonsense factory | Nov 21, 2017 4:51:11 PM | 19
#5. ‘Russia doesn’t have any money’
#6. ‘Putin is a tactician not a strategist’Now if only Putin would send some more cargo planes with food and fuel into Yemen’s main airport with fighter escort if necessary, and dare the Saudis to fire on them, I’d go back to my Russian Orthodox roots and light candles over an icon of St. Vladimir.
‘U.S. ignores Al Qaeda yet again’
I find it notable that the U.S. Administration, military, and lapdog MSM, are all saying, ‘ISIS has been defeated in Syria / Iraq but still exists as an online presence’. Give our obedient, lapdog MSM a dog biscuit for repeating what they are told.
Al Qaeda has officially disappeared from Syria even though this is the reason we are still slogging it out in Afghanistan. Will the news blackout continue or will Al Qaeda be re-discovered at a later date and our MSM will cover them again without even noting the collective, long term amnesia?
Posted by: Christian Chuba | Nov 21, 2017 4:58:09 PM | 20
The political goal of the Outlaw US Empire versus Vietnam was to prevent the threat of a good example, and that goal was achieved; thus, the Outlaw Empire won as it fulfilled its aim depite having to withdraw from the nation.
18–Putin did thank both Iran and Hezbollah when he addressed those military men attending his reception with Assad.
Lots of telephone lines being warmed up as Putin goes on the diplomatic offensive; note the list here, http://en.kremlin.ru/
Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 21, 2017 5:10:12 PM | 21
Much as I agree with the analysis of the Russian intervention, this victory is not a Syrian and Russian one only. Iran and Hezbollah have played a major role on the ground. That is not to take away from the Syrian and Russian roles, but the Shia allies’s role is remarkable too.
When Assad was thanking other countries a year or so ago, he primarily thanked Iran, and its contribution is much higher than we will ever know, they just prefer to fly under the radar and let others take the credit. For example, if 30-50 Iranian generals died in frontlines (Russians lost one?), then who knows how many thousands of lower ranked IRGC, Al Quds or volunteers lost their lives. Iran also supplied weapons, oil, and n billions to keep Syria afloat.
Also if not Iran’s influence, its unclear if Hezbollah would have been involved as much as they did, and even Russia had to be convinced by Iran to move in full force.
@ nonsense factory | 19
Iran on Monday annulled permission for Russian planes to fly bombing runs into Syria from an Iranian base, only a week after having granted such extraordinary access.
As I remember, its against Iranian law to allow foreign military to operate from Iran’s bases. Iran asked to keep it down-low and discreet, Russians got carried away with bragging and lost that privilege. In most cases Iran is happy when Russia is loud-mouthing or takes the credit, it allows Iranians to fly under the radar and avoid the heat (which is concentrated on Russia). In some cases discretion is highly valued by Iranians.
Posted by: Harry | Nov 21, 2017 5:43:53 PM | 22
New planes, better trained pilots, better rotary wing, better projectiles, more
armor.But of course, even if Russia is no longer officially or round the clock on
the battlefield, it will be there no doubt if requested upon to render assistance
if need be.
Some help, intelligence, AA batteries and so forth will be turned over to Syrian
forces so that Assad can keep the predators at bay.
This is what I surmise will happen.
Posted by: CarlD | Nov 21, 2017 1:45:15 PM | 1